Categories: ANALYTICS

Elections are inevitable. Because otherwise, what?

Donald Trump assures that significant progress has been made in peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, and everything is going according to plan. Meanwhile, Ukraine is setting substantial conditions for a future peace agreement, while the pseudo-empire outright denies that any negotiations are taking place.

At the same time, Trump’s bold moves against Panama, Mexico, and Canada have yielded immediate results – compare that to the Kremlin’s threats against NATO member states, which have achieved absolutely nothing. And yet, Russia’s scare tactics seemed far more intimidating than those coming from the White House.

The situation with Greenland, however, has proven more complicated – mere intimidation won’t be enough here. A referendum may be necessary, and the final outcome will likely be limited to an expansion of U.S. military and economic presence on the island.

Meanwhile, China has accepted the U.S. challenge and responded with its own tariff war. But Trump and Comrade Xi will find common ground – they have no desire to collapse the global economy in their confrontation. Nonsense like “We will go to heaven, and our enemies will go to hell” is not part of their vision for growth and prosperity.

However, Ukraine’s political establishment is seriously preparing for elections. Apparently, they are among the very few issues where the U.S. and Russia share a common perspective.

Why does Putin want elections in Ukraine? That’s obvious – he hopes they will further destabilize the country. And if, under U.S. pressure, all political forces are allowed to participate, Russia will try to push its puppets into power.

Trump’s motivation, however, is more complicated. Talk of democratic principles, legitimacy, and other feel-good rhetoric is irrelevant when it comes to a pathological pragmatist in the White House and the corporate elites surrounding him.

It seems that Trump either wants to reelect Zelensky and Yermak because he is dissatisfied with their effectiveness in several areas, or he wants more compliant leaders who will unquestioningly implement the U.S.’s ambiguous peace plans. This fits perfectly into the superpower’s pragmatic approach.

In short, elections will take place – too many influential forces, both within Ukraine and beyond, want them to happen. The key is to ensure that Putin’s puppets and Trump’s enforcers don’t turn out to be the same people.

Alexandr Kochetkov