The illusion of sanctions: why Russian oil keeps flowing and what really works

#_Russian_bloody_oil Right now, the Americans (and unfortunately, very respectable ones) are starting to boast about how effective their sanctions are against the so-called “shadow fleet” (which they themselves invented so nothing changes in the market for their petrol stations).

But there’s one problem – Ukrainian researchers, who (for some reason) see a completely different picture.

So, Western researchers have noticed that “In February 2025, 356 ships exported Russian crude oil and oil products.” – But we recorded and tracked the routes… of 478 tankers. With our own eyes. We don’t even know how to explain this.

Nevertheless, our assessment of the February trends compared to January 2025 matched (in percentages) – a decrease of 9%.

Western colleagues have made a victorious conclusion – this is the impact of sanctions (from the USA, EU, UK, and Canada)…

We have been extremely skeptical about this “impact” from the very beginning because the sanctions model absolutely DOES NOT prevent the Russians from transporting oil from the Baltic Sea or Arctic ports to India, China, or Turkey…

We said and continue to say that the decrease in February was the result of attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ UAV systems (at least 8 UAV attacks in January-February 2025 on the Ust-Luga port and facilities of the Baltic Pipeline System).

So… In March 2025, the decrease turned into growth across all seas… – by 5.2% overall – see the Table.
(Attention for attentive readers! We know very well that in March, as in January, there are 31 days, and in February, 28. The percentage growth in the table is recalculated based on the average export volume per day).

This means that sanctions on tankers DID NOT work. This conclusion does not require any scientific discussions – the export volumes speak for themselves… That is, the huge number of sanctioned tankers (around 400) DID NOT create a shortage of ships in the tanker transportation market from Russia. UAVs worked.

So, we keep working. And don’t talk (or listen) about falling global prices – Putin is perfectly fine with current prices around $60/bbl, or even lower, to purchase machinery, electronics, optics, etc. abroad using oil revenues – all to produce missiles…

But the theorists behind the “price cap” now have a problem – Biden’s goal was unexpectedly achieved thanks to Trump’s efforts, which had nothing to do with oil.

So what now? The entire artificial concept of the so-called “shadow fleet” was based on the “price cap.” No “cap” – no “fleet.” (That’s sarcasm, of course…)

The goal should be formulated like this: to reduce Russian revenues from maritime oil exports by at least 50%.

And we know how to do that, and we’ve long told our friends in the Baltic region about it. They’re just still afraid. But that can be fixed.

Andrii Klymenko

Tags: american sanctions Business hybrid war hybrid warfare russia ukraine Russia sanctions sanctions against russia sanctions policy Ukraine